WI Court recount over, Prosser wins: What now?

The "Immaculate Election" is complete. With the recount now over for the Supreme Court race, it appears David Prosser retains his seat over off-the-charts-underdog JoAnne Kloppenburg whose 200-vote, April 5, election-day victory miraculously turned into a 7,316-vote deficit because one-time Prosser aide and current Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus forgot--she forgot!--to count some 14,000 votes from heavily Republicanized Brookfield in Waukesha County (previous post here).  And, amazingly, it just happened to benefit Prosser, the candidate in this non-partisan post that the Walker administration brazenly said would best help advance its agenda.

Although Kloppenburg gained only 306 votes during the recount, the far greater impact was that of restoring faith in the state's election system and its officials.  Kloppenburg said in her statement at the time of the recount request, "We must restore trust and confidence in the integrity of this and future elections."

So, what happens now?  Does Kloppenburg go to court to challenge the recount?  Her camp isn't saying.  Blogger Cieran (writng at the Daily Kos), however, tracked nearly 5,000 votes that were suspicious due to things such as improperly sealed or registered ballot bags, so it appears there could at least be a possibility of some tainted ballots.  In the Journal Sentinel, however, former Supreme Court Justice Janine Geske implied that kind of challenge would be a very tough battle.

If, on the other hand, there is evidence of something more sinister, shall we say, either behind the handling of ballots by Nickolaus or courtesy of some other improprieties, things could get interesting.

To be honest, though, even without a smoking cannon here, the more this stays in the headlines, the more energized the anti-Walker base will be as recall elections come this July. And if this lasts beyond August 1 (when the next Justice term is slated to start), there will be a vacant seat if the collective bargaining bill then comes before the Court, which could lead to a 3-3 tie, in which case, the Journal Sentinel reports, "a lower court might have the last word."

The recount may be over, but the excitement may have just begun.

Photo of Kloppenburg from timesunion.com

Recounting the future of Kloppenburg

I happened across what I'd term a typical talk-radio discussion on WSAU in Wausau.  The host was going on and on about JoAnne Kloppenburg requesting the recount that he said is her right under Wisconsin law in the Supreme Court race wth David Prosser.

And then a funny thing happened.

I agreed with him.

Well, not for 99% of it, but for some of it, anyway.

I, too, agree that I don't think a 0.48% margin will be reversed.  As I wrote in a previous post , just as the conservative talker discussed, I don't believe the recall should be done because of the expense and the relative futility of any significant change (although--surprise,surprise--Minnesota's losing Republican 2010 gubernatorial candidate did the same thing with about the same margin--0.42%) .   And the host said it was likely that Kloppenburg's camp would try to get the Brookfield votes declared illegal and thrown out (which, I agree, if they are found to be illegal, I would expect they should be thrown out).

But then the host mentioned something I hadn't really considered, that the recount would keep the issue alive and energize non-conservative Wisconsin voters for the upcoming recalls.

I thought about it, and I agreed again.

Gosh, I hope he's right (I mean, correct).

Battle lost, but war remains

It's time to call off the troops on the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court. 

Prosser won.  The "unsaved" ballots from Brookfield put him in the lead, and state canvassing has confirmed his victory with a 7,316 vote margin.  (1) Although there should still be investigations into the seeming continued ineptitude of the Waukesha clerk who "forgot to hit save" and didn't annouce it until two days later, the race is done.

Because Kloppenburg lost by a 0.488% margin, her campaign can request a state-funded recount (0.5 % is the Wisconsin threshhold).  (1) It would cost county coffers a total likely in the hundreds of thousands of dollars (6)  (the state summary of recount procedures can be found here).  (2) Minnesota recounted its 2010 gubernatorial results.  Democrat Mark Dayton's margin, at 0.42%, was "a larger unofficial margin than has ever been overturned in a modern-era recount, in any state." (3,4)  Dayton's opponent, Republican Tom Emmer conceded after results confirmed a relatively unchanged margin. (7)  (for thorough and insightful discussion about the insignificance of recount changes, check out Rob Ritchie in the Huffington Post  here). (5)

But Kloppenburg's loss was not without gains.  She was an aftertought in the primary, but yet state voters almost unseated a sitting state justice.  And, hopefully, it will make Waukesha County's vote counts a bit more reliable, and believable, for goodness sakes, in future elections.

Figuratively, there will be many more battles.  And don't think for a minute this single election has determined the way this war will end.

(1) Ballots are now totaled, JS Online, 4/16/11, http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119938614.html
(2) Election Administration Manual for WI Municipal Clerks, State of Wisconsin, http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=11826&locid=47
(3) 2010 Election Results, Mpls. Star Tribune, http://elections.startribune.com/returns/mgovsm.html, retrieved 4/16/11
(4) Editorial: ...lower recount threshhold, Mpls. Star Tribune, 11/15/10, http://www.startribune.com/opinion/editorials/108257194.html, retrieved 4/16/11
(5) Contested Recalls Unlikely..., by Rob Ritchie, Huffington Post, posted 11/1/10 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-richie/contested-recounts-unlike_b_777299.html, retrieved, 4/16/11
(6) Potential recount would cost... Wisconsin Reporter.com, 4/14/11, http://www.wisconsinreporter.com/potential-recount-would-cost-local-governments-money-manpower retrieved, 4/16/11
(7) Mark Dayton declared winner, finally, MPRNews, 12/10/10, http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/12/08/emmer-recount-concession/ retrieved 4/16/11