Saturday, July 20, 2024

Can Kamala Harris win?

Now that Democrats are coming to grips with Biden's much-needed departure from the presidential race, it's time to choose the successor.

Being this late in the game, the logical choice is Biden's VP Kamala Harris.

But can Harris win?

She has a lot of things going for her.

Harris can beat Trump in November

She's got the name recognition, her policies have been out there since her run for the Democratic nomination in 2020, she was elected Vice President in 2020 and is on the Biden/Harris ticket that resoundingly swept the primaries in 2024.

Harris is a known commodity that could hit the campaign trail running.

And, perhaps the biggest reason of all, because Harris and Biden share a campaign committee, all $91 million on hand of the campaign's war chest would come Harris's way (which wouldn't likewise transfer to any other Democrat).

Note: Although, amazingly, that massive amount still trails Trump's $116 million, it towers above the available funds any other potential Democratic hopefuls might have.

Harris's polling tends to run a bit better than Biden's in a match-up with Trump. Her numbers are generally better, as well, with two demographics that are well-positioned to make a difference in the upcoming election: Blacks and women.

She has also gained renown as a champion for abortion and women's reproductive rights, an issue that has mobilized voters even in red states to support laws protecting a woman's right to choose. Ostensibly, Harris would bring those voters out in November, as well.

There are the Biden/Harris administration successes she could point to--bipartisan bills regarding infrastructure and semi-conductor production, for example--and what, by then, should be a much more positive picture regarding issues such as inflation and the border (especially with Biden's recent executive action).

And her experience as a California prosecutor would eviscerate Trump's positions and record--the exact opposite of what Biden should have done (and was unable to do) in his catastrophic June debate.

Some down sides: She's connected to the perceived failures of the Biden administration, i.e., inflation and immigration (the latter of which she was tasked with improving, pretty much to no avail); her disapproval rating runs higher than her approval (although she still fares better than both Biden and Trump); she fostered some policy and performance criticism during her time as San Francisco DA and California Attorney General; and the above-mentioned Biden/Harris administration successes appear to have been pretty much all Joe, no Kamala.

But there are two ENORMOUSLY important points that would help Kamala Harris win in November:

1) She's not Biden

2) She's not Trump

So, Democrats, let's get on with it.

It's Harris's time.

Bring on November.


Here's a great take about why Harris may NOT win (from Politico)






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