The Inevitability of Trump

Well, here we are.

With DeSantis's departure, the GOP nomination field for President has whittled from fourteen to two.

And, hey, Nikki Haley, who are we kidding? 

It's coming into focus--the GOP nominee will be Trump

The GOP nominee will be Trump.

Polls show Trump with an average margin over Haley of fourteen points in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. And, for the following week, Trump's up an astounding 36% in SC over South Carolina's favorite daughter. So, even if somehow, some way, Nikki Haley were to garner more New Hampshire votes than Trump, it would just delay the inevitable: Donald Trump, the twice-impeached, four-time indicted, 91-felony-count-facing, sexual-assault-liable, business-fraud, former US President--despite facing charges of hoarding classified US documents and promoting conspiracy theories to overturn an election--will be anointed the GOP's nominee to run for president.

Unbelievably, you read that right. 

As it stands right now, even more than half the US GOP Senators--some of whom have called Trump a "con artist," a "pathological liar," or a "race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot"--have now endorsed his candidacy. The same party with lawmakers who claimed Trump's rhetoric was responsible for January 6 are now embracing the candidate who, as President, disregarded the US Constitution and attempted to thwart democracy. And, in the very near future, it will be official.

The Republicans want this despicable, bullying, narcissist as their president--this man who lost the 2020 White House, House, and Senate, and brought embarrassing numbers to the GOP in 2022, as well. 

Fortunately, it isn't exclusively up to the spineless/gullible morons who have cast their lot with Trump.

Despite most polls calling a Biden/Trump rematch in a dead heat (i.e., most are within the margin of error), polls also show that Trump's support would drop double digits if he were convicted.

Well, that's assuming that the voters they polled follow through on their morals and convictions more than most in the GOP have done.

If so, then, despite Trump's inevitable nomination, his ascendency to the presidency will be anything but.

Just like Ron DeSantis, Trump will not spend the next four years in the White House.

It's inevitable.

ADDENDUM: Politico just published (1/22) a thorough analysis of Trump's court cases and electability: Will Trump’s Jan. 6 Trial Take Place Before the Election? - POLITICO

Trump, the GOP, and a pair of political wishes for 2024

No matter how you view it, politically, 2023 was grim.

Most days brought head-shaking news from the GOP. 

From in-House GOP bickering to the House expulsion of George Santos to lining up a fact-free impeachment of the Democratic president to, stunningly, presenting as their BEST CHOICE to run for president in 2024, an ethically-bereft, twice-impeached insurrectionist facing 91 felony charges in four different courts, who has promised, if elected, to obtain the apparently Confederate-inspired goal of "retribution."

Amazingly (and, truly, terrifyingly so), 2024 doesn't look as though it might be any better.

But our country needs it.

That said, here are my two political wishes for the new year.

First off (and less important than my second wish), I hope the House GOP gets it together. 

They took fifteen votes to elect a Speaker and then ousted him. GOP members physically and verbally assaulted one another. They scrutinized Biden's bank records attempting to prove that a documented loan repayment from his brother and car payments from his son are really evidence of impeachable offenses. And they continued to bend over backwards to appease the demagogue that is the head of the GOP: twice-impeached, four-time-indicted, former president Donald J. Trump.

And it's been done to the detriment of legislating--neglecting pressing needs such as gun control and immigration to pass an historically few number of bills.

I understand that GOP functionality is an enormous ask, though. Hopefully, there will arise a few (or at least one or two?) principled GOP lawmakers to take a stand for what's right. 

The country needs it.

But, sadly, I wouldn't count on it.

My far more fervent wish, and an even bigger ask, I'm afraid, pertains to the upcoming trials of the GOP presidential frontrunner.

Although my hope is that justice will be served, my wish is much more than that.

Juries of my fellow citizens--and their court officers--will hear evidence to determine Trump's guilt or innocence.

Obviously, they'll have to put aside preconceived biases to reach just verdicts.

But it won't be that easy. 

They'll also have to navigate their fear for the physical safety of themselves and their families if they decide to render a guilty verdict--something even U.S. Senators couldn't overcome during Trump's second impeachment, despite recognizing his guilt.

The same fear and threats of violence likely experienced by the District Attorney of Fulton County, GA, or the Washington insurrection trial judge, or the DA's office in New York, or the four Colorado Supreme Court members that found Trump should be removed from the primary ballot (notably, those Colorado Justices voting in favor of Trump WEREN'T threatened by Biden supporters).

So, my wish is that the juries will be able to render fair judgements. And that the threats made by the gullible, evil minions of Trump's army will not be able to thwart such decisions. And that those brave souls serving the country in the U.S. Courts will remain safe.

Our country needs it.

God bless America.

Can Biden Win?

Can Joe Biden win another term?

Um, maybe. Depends on a couple things: 1) Issue perception 2) Donald Trump

1) Biden will win no matter what if Democrats can change public perception on three big issues: a) inflation b) immigration c) Biden's age/competence.

a) Inflation is perceived as out-of-control, even though it's still largely a reaction to difficulties with supplies and the labor market (and the world response) thanks to Covid. Overall, inflation is expected to slow even more in the coming months. Most people don't realize that at the end of August, it was 3.7%, down from 7% two years prior (on its way, hopefully, to the "sweet spot" of 2% or so). 

Dems should continue to emphasize downward trends.

b) Perception also sees undocumented immigration as rampant. Just because the GOP hasn't been able to find evidence to back their impeachment threats against Homeland Security's Alejandro Mayorkas, doesn't mean it's not a problem. It's not because of fentanyl smuggling (the vast majority which comes via US citizen smugglers through ports of entry--not through migrants and illegal border crossings), and it's not because of the fictional "open border" nonsense Republicans decry, but numbers are up. 

Democrats need to frame it as a solution to our labor shortage--highlighting the noble immigrant plight of those coming to our country in decades past looking for a better life for their families. 

And Biden needs to embrace the immigration problem. He needs to visit the border. He needs to continually address it and present border policies, framing it as a problem squarely on the shoulders of Congress. 

c) Many people equate Biden's age with competence. Many perceive Biden as old and feeble. Well, he is the oldest President we've ever had (although, at 80, Biden now is exactly the age Trump would be if he were to start another term). And, yes, Biden has had more than his share of gaffes. Biden's lack of interviews and press conferences makes people think he's avoiding them because his responses (and response time) leave something to be desired. Although Trump's innumerable Twitter/X misspellings and recent admonitions about Biden leading us into World War 2 (um, which happened 79 years ago) aren't exactly impressive.

The best way to combat this is to get out there. Meet with the press. Have public rallies. Engage in difficult interviews. To be honest, with Biden the (as of yet) unchallenged incumbent, I don't envision Biden's team pushing for such measures because I don't think that THEY think he'd shine doing so.

There's one more factor to determine if Biden can win: Will Trump be his opponent?

2) If Trump is the GOP nominee--with his grievances, his baggage, and his criminal indictments--Biden WILL win. 

The challenge here, however, is that I don't think Trump will be the nominee. If someone else takes the GOP nomination, and the three issues mentioned here aren't adequately addressed, Biden will have a very difficult task.

But I don't think Biden will continue his run for the White House. I've believed for months that he won't be the nominee (my choice to win has been Gavin Newsom).

So, can Biden win another term? Absolutely. 

Unless he's NOT running against Donald Trump. 

Then, it's anyone's guess. 

ADDENDUM: This poll JUST came out (9/24) and highlights these same perceptions of Biden's shortcomings (and the Democrats better do something about it): Troubles for Biden not just his age in reelection campaign: POLL (yahoo.com) 

Um, U Can't Impeach w/o a Crime

Representative Jamie Raskin issued a press release today that absolutely eviscerates the GOP's Biden impeachment push (you can read his INCREDIBLE assessment here).

The main point: many of the GOP witnesses said they didn't see/think that President Biden had anything to do with Hunter's business dealings. 

And, hmmm, there are absolutely ZERO documents that connect those dealings to the current President.

Even my home state's Trump lap dog--and fake-elector go-between--Ron Johnson (who led a GOP investigative committee about Biden last year) has a couple lines devoted to him in Raskin's release: 

• Sen. Ron Johnson conceded that Republicans have not found any "direct evidence" or "hard proof" of wrongdoing by President Biden.

(you can read the 87-page report--with not one scintilla of Biden wrongdoing--here)

Boy, I bet Trump wishes HIS cases were as evidence-free as this.

And, still, the messed-up, morally-bankrupt, Trump-fearing GOP seems determined to push ahead with a sham impeachment. Unbelievable.

THIS is what the Grand Old Party is reduced to--continuing to do the twisted bidding of its dark overlord, Donald J. Trump.

2024, here we come!

ADDENDUM: Since this post, the intrepid-do-gooders of this committee have found what they claim is evidence of Biden receiving millions in bribes: documented loan paybacks from his brother, and three installments totaling less than $5000 connected to helping his son make payments on his truck.