Can Biden Win?

Can Joe Biden win another term?

Um, maybe. Depends on a couple things: 1) Issue perception 2) Donald Trump

1) Biden will win no matter what if Democrats can change public perception on three big issues: a) inflation b) immigration c) Biden's age/competence.

a) Inflation is perceived as out-of-control, even though it's still largely a reaction to difficulties with supplies and the labor market (and the world response) thanks to Covid. Overall, inflation is expected to slow even more in the coming months. Most people don't realize that at the end of August, it was 3.7%, down from 7% two years prior (on its way, hopefully, to the "sweet spot" of 2% or so). 

Dems should continue to emphasize downward trends.

b) Perception also sees undocumented immigration as rampant. Just because the GOP hasn't been able to find evidence to back their impeachment threats against Homeland Security's Alejandro Mayorkas, doesn't mean it's not a problem. It's not because of fentanyl smuggling (the vast majority which comes via US citizen smugglers through ports of entry--not through migrants and illegal border crossings), and it's not because of the fictional "open border" nonsense Republicans decry, but numbers are up. 

Democrats need to frame it as a solution to our labor shortage--highlighting the noble immigrant plight of those coming to our country in decades past looking for a better life for their families. 

And Biden needs to embrace the immigration problem. He needs to visit the border. He needs to continually address it and present border policies, framing it as a problem squarely on the shoulders of Congress. 

c) Many people equate Biden's age with competence. Many perceive Biden as old and feeble. Well, he is the oldest President we've ever had (although, at 80, Biden now is exactly the age Trump would be if he were to start another term). And, yes, Biden has had more than his share of gaffes. Biden's lack of interviews and press conferences makes people think he's avoiding them because his responses (and response time) leave something to be desired. Although Trump's innumerable Twitter/X misspellings and recent admonitions about Biden leading us into World War 2 (um, which happened 79 years ago) aren't exactly impressive.

The best way to combat this is to get out there. Meet with the press. Have public rallies. Engage in difficult interviews. To be honest, with Biden the (as of yet) unchallenged incumbent, I don't envision Biden's team pushing for such measures because I don't think that THEY think he'd shine doing so.

There's one more factor to determine if Biden can win: Will Trump be his opponent?

2) If Trump is the GOP nominee--with his grievances, his baggage, and his criminal indictments--Biden WILL win. 

The challenge here, however, is that I don't think Trump will be the nominee. If someone else takes the GOP nomination, and the three issues mentioned here aren't adequately addressed, Biden will have a very difficult task.

But I don't think Biden will continue his run for the White House. I've believed for months that he won't be the nominee (my choice to win has been Gavin Newsom).

So, can Biden win another term? Absolutely. 

Unless he's NOT running against Donald Trump. 

Then, it's anyone's guess. 

ADDENDUM: This poll JUST came out (9/24) and highlights these same perceptions of Biden's shortcomings (and the Democrats better do something about it): Troubles for Biden not just his age in reelection campaign: POLL (yahoo.com)